Things are getting better...again.

Things are improving so fast I just can't stand it. The BLS keeps trotting out these amazing job gains and the Street reacts with big gains that will probably be lost (or maybe not) down the road. Not that gains in the DOW piss me off- I still have money there. The thing about the jobs report, at least as I see it, is that for I don't know how long we were told that we needed  +250,000 per month to stabilize the unemployment rate. Now we hear it's 200,000. Next we will be told that as long as we get 100,000 new jobs a month it will signal good times. Well as I said before I'm betting that a whole lot of those jobs are temp jobs for the holidays. Better than not having a job? Of course it is. The thing is, many if not most of those seasonal jobs will go away after Christmas. What will be left? Lots of retail jobs. The jobs report indicates that a large number of retail jobs were created. Good news to be sure except that many of those jobs holders will still require assistance to make ends meet. Probably a lot of jobs will be created in our ponzi financial sector for those that are qualified. Well, that takes care of upper and lower income jobs I guess. Now what about the rest of us? 

As I have said before and am sure it is apparent to anyone reading this, I am a doomer. Here's the thing. I am a skilled labor, decent income earning type of guy. At least I was until the end of last September. I've been unemployed for 2 months without really even a sniff at a job. Am I just lazy?  Not hardly. Am I any good at what I do? Damn right I am. I am excellent at what I do. Any jobs available for me? Very few that don't include leaving my family behind and working in BFE. That comes next. You might think that having specialized skills would necessarily improve your employment outlook. Maybe if you're young. What about folks like me that are north of 50 and should supervising the kind of work they have mastered rather than hoping to find an entry level job in the field they have worked in all their adult lives? For people like us, the future doesn't look quite so rosy. In fact, my future pretty much sucks.

I will be interviewing soon for a job that is some 300 miles from home. I have a good chance of being hired. What will that mean for me and my family. Well for starters, I will once again have health insurance. That is a BIG deal, especially when you are older. The pay? Similar to what I earned at my last gig. A 600 mile daily commute? Nope. Ain't gonna happen. So now, to earn a living and have health insurance, I have to earn enough to live elsewhere, while sending my family enough money to make this move make sense. Why not move? The other half of the financial equation (my wife) has a job here which can't be easily replaced there. We have a house that fits our needs, great neighbors, and a great community. Maybe I can find some other kind of job so that I can stay here? Been trying that for 2 fricken months with no success. Either over qualified or not qualified enough for a different kind of work.

So, when I hear about the drastic improvements in the labor market, I have to wonder how many people are in same leaky boat I am. Maybe millions. That's why I view these job numbers as a feel good stat intended to drive the Market up despite seeming indicators (at least to me) to the contrary. The much talked about destruction of the middle class. Coming soon to someone you know.

Black Friday...good grief!

To those of you who decide to stay home with your families on Black Friday-congratulations for making the right choice. To the rest (the participants), what in the hell are you thinking?

Whether or not you believe as I do that we should be saving and paying down our debt, words can't describe my perception of the idiocy of this tradition. Hopefully you have the opportunity to see yourselves in one of the many videos currently viewable online or on TV. Bunch of buffoons.

Is this a sign of an improving economy? Seems doubtful to me and here's why. As has been noted on various other blogs (good blogs... not like this one), many who are effectively squatting in homes that they aren't bothering to pay for are using what money they do have to buy cheap Chinese crap instead of paying their mortgage payment and at least attempting to provide for their own and their family's future. It is horribly sad when someone prizes to such an extent a 40" flat screen TV that will either be shortly outdated or a nonworking piece of shit. Talk about screwed up priorities. Second, much of the amazing recent employment gains are very likely temporary seasonal workers who will  once again be  unemployed in January.

We as a society do seem to place undo emphasis on possessions. I think most would agree with that statement. If not- fine. If your idea of America is working 40 hrs. a week (if you're lucky) to own a bunch of stuff that will lose it's ability to make you feel good about yourself in short order, then more power to you. I certainly don't eschew possessions, I have lots of useful, durable stuff. Good quality stuff that was built to last. Not cheap Chinese crap made by poor people who are paid third world wages for the privilege of enriching Walmart and Target.

What happens when the holiday season is over is any body's guess. Probably temp workers will be let go, sales will return to their normal level (which wasn't good), truck freight will decline as well, and all the while the pundits will declare the economy healed. As I posted previously, excellent quality blogs such as Charles Smith's Of Two Minds,  Mish, and Zerohedge  paint a far different picture, at least for me.

I sincerely hope all will be well, but I very much doubt it.

Improving?

Is the economy improving? I certainly hope so but- a look at the various charts and graphs supplied today by Zerohedge says otherwise. You can almost bet that first time claims will be revised higher next week. Adding that to the aforementioned charts will likely give you a different and more realistic perspective. Sorry to be negative folks.

On a cheerier note- HAPPY THANKSGIVING EVERYONE!

Do something-even if it's wrong!

Guess that must be our new mantra. Maybe it always was. The Fed messing about in the economy. The TSA messing about in our pants. We expect results in a hurry and if what we just tried didn't work, let's wait a day or two and try something else. We demand instant gratification.

Problem is, we don't really know what we want except in a vague, general sort of way. We want a strong economy and security. Just make it so! Ain't gonna happen-at least not tomorrow or the next day. Solutions? I sure don't have any. Maybe all we can do is raise our voices to the people who can do something. Ourselves.

Will a majority Republican house make a difference. I hope so but deep down I doubt it. I don't believe a solution to our problems will ever come from a politician. The world really is different now and we have only ourselves to rely on. Better get busy.

Funk

Well the economy may or may not be improving depending on who you listen to. Jobs may or may not be improving depending on who you listen to. Probably a whole host of things may or may not be improving. If you are like me, it really doesn't matter who you listen to, something just feels decidedly wrong.

There just seems to be no end to potential problems out there. The economy, employment, housing, our education system, the oil spill and other environmental worries, and it seems to me that under the surface there seems to be bit of racial tension bubbling up. Starting to seem as though we may never get beyond that. Just plain bad karma-I don't know what else to call this period in time. I am just north of 50 years old and can honestly say I don't ever remember a time like this. Whether or not we are in an economic depression, as has been posited by some very smart folks, something is most definitely wrong in America. I think that most of us can feel it even if we don't admit it.

I feel that we as a society are in decline. Tommy over at Freedom Guerrilla has a nice rant about this. His blog is always a good read but his latest is a cut above. It is hard to put your finger on our problems until you realize that it isn't just one problem or five or twelve but it seems as though everything is wrong. Everywhere you look the story is "it's all about me". It is pervasive. All ages, races, ethnicities,etc. NO ONE seems to give a damn anymore about anyone but themselves. Whether we go down the tubes in six months or six years or six decades, the fact is we ARE going down the tubes. We have become so shallow, with our heads so far up our collective asses, that I simply don't have much hope anymore. I mean, talk about the head up the ass-on local talk radio today there was still advice on flipping houses. Millions are hungry and unemployed and hopeless and we're talking about flipping houses. WTF.

jobs?

Well, it seems like regardless of the week, month, or year we just aren't doing well. The construction sector got hammered again as was expected by most. I can't help but wonder what has happened to all the "shovel ready" projects we heard about from this administration before and after election time. I visit The Infrastructurist often and there seems to be lots of potential work out there. You may or may not agree with a WPA type of program but the potential for lots of jobs is there. Having said that, I wonder where other types of jobs would come from? If you have an answer for that one for goodness sake let someone know.

As I have said before I am a certifiable doomer. It isn't so much that I think the world will end soon but I think we have problems in this country with our economic and political structure that will not be easily solved soon if ever. A radical reset will be in order.

There just doesn't seem to be much demand out there for the things that drive hiring and production in our economy, namely stuff people can't afford or don't want. Consumers aren't consuming as much so businesses aren't hiring as much. Pretty simple concept. People may be getting the idea that the ability to make payments is not the same as being able to afford the current object of their lust.

If we don't buy things we can't afford or spend our weekends at Walmart, how do we keep our economy afloat? Good question. Seems to me that we need to begin producing goods in our own country for our own people to buy. We need to maybe lower our expectations a bit in regard to our homes and our rides. We need to begin rebuilding our infrastructure post haste as things seem to be crumbling before our eyes. I don't think anyone really knows what will resurrect our economy but I think it is destined to be a slow painful process for millions of people because it feels as though we may really be in deep shit.

jobs?